It’s difficult to see a reality where the Oklahoma City Thunder can reach a higher ceiling.
Over the last two seasons, few in the NBA can say they can compete with OKC when it’s healthy. During the 2024-25 NBA Championship-winning season, OKC was without Chet Holmgren for most of the regular season and he never got back to his best self. During that title run, Jalen Williams hurt his wrist, which led to surgery, which led to an inactive offseason, which very well could’ve played a part in his nagging hamstring issues that cost him all but Game 1 of OKC’s WCF loss to the Spurs.
This, right now, is the healthiest OKC has been in over two years. The only guys dealing with injury are Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber and Otega Oweh, none of whom factor into the assumed rotation in game one. But even with that health, how much better can OKC really get? While general health will be the biggest swing factor for the Thunder, an unforeseen, newer variable could emerge as an important part of his team not only now, but for years to come.
Heading into the draft, I wasn’t the biggest fan of Aday Mara. I didn’t hide from that fact in writing or in my podcast appearances. I saw the vision of what he could be, but I found the odds of him ever becoming that to be long. He never played heavy minutes; he was somewhat of a bust at UCLA after being a notable recruit; he appeared to be slow-footed and had, and maybe still has, no shooting upside.
So, admittedly, I may be eating crow prematurely here, but in his preseason games, I was convinced that Mara has a chance of becoming what his biggest fans argued he could.
I knew Mara was a special passer. That was the selling point for why he was an outlier prospect alongside his 7-foot-3 frame. I didn’t know how quickly the passing would translate, even if it was just in the preseason.
OKC commonly used Mara as the lead decision-maker on the elbow; a tip of the cap it really only gives to Isaiah Hartenstein during the regular season and playoffs. The experiment came with some turnovers, as Mara looked eerily like Hartenstein, trying to fit the ball into tight windows to cutting teammates. The defense tipped away a few of Mara’s passes, which led to him averaging 2.6 turnovers per game. That aggressiveness also helped Mara average nearly three assists per game.
Mara’s remarkable passing makes him the latest addition to what we can now clearly identify as a trend by Sam Presti and his scouting department.
Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber and now Mara. All of these players are plus passers for their position, with Hartenstein and Mara both slotting into the elite category for bigs, at least in my opinion. Nikola Jokic starts the list for big-man passer, as he may very well be the best one to ever dribble a basketball, but Hartenstein is in that next tier at the center position. Williams definitely holds his own in that elbow passer role when he’s in the game for Hartenstein. Sorber hasn’t played in the NBA yet, but he was thought of as a good passer during his one season at Georgetown, where he averaged 2.4 assists per game.
The universal passing ability of OKC’s bigs is important for the team now because it allows it to always have the ability to throw it to the big on the elbow and have them run the possession, but it’s clearly even more relevant for the long-term outlook of the team.
Earlier this week, Cason Wallace got a hefty extension that put the Thunder deep into the second apron in every projection. It was a good sign that OKC ownership is willing to spend big, but there are almost certainly limits to that willingness. If OKC keeps everyone it currently has under contract, it will have a tax bill of over $460 million. Maybe they’ll be willing to eat that money for one season, but even if they are, which they probably aren’t, they certainly won’t do it for two.
So, to reduce the tax bill, there are only a few options. Trade one of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (I’m going to guess not this one!), Jalen Williams, or Chet Holmgren. Trading Williams or Holmgren would certainly save OKC a lot of money, but it would also make them a lot worse, get rid of a young All-NBA talent and make a team they are competing with for titles dramatically better.
If I know anything about Presti and OKC, it’s that they learn from mistakes and apply those lessons. One of them: don’t trade under-25 superstars! I’d assume that the more likely scenario is that one, or both of Alex Caruso and Hartenstein will be traded. Both are so crucial to OKC as currently constructed. Hartenstein was great against Victor Wembanyama in the playoffs last season and is OKC’s best shot at stopping its mortal enemy. Caruso was arguably OKC’s second-best player in that series and is its skeleton key on both sides of the ball in high-leverage moments.
Finding a replacement for either will be difficult, but Mara has a ton of Hartenstein’s skills, was a lottery pick in a loaded draft and is 7-3. After playing him heavy minutes in the preseason, OKC threw him into the fire and made him do something he’s never done before. He thrived, looked better conditioned and more explosive than he did at Michigan, and looked Hartenstein-esque with his high-post passing.
If he can build on his performances in the preseason, he could be even better than Hartenstein. He’s taller, his passing may be just as special and he projects to be better defensively.
His height provides OKC with something it hasn’t had before, but his passing and IQ fit in perfectly with the infrastructure it’s built, and if Mara pans out, he could save OKC from having to trade one of Holmgren, Williams or Caruso and stay just as good for one more season, which is one season closer to a new CBA that will almost definitely be less restrictive.
So Mara’s preseason was just that; it was a preseason.
I don’t think he’s going to play a big role tonight against the Spurs, and he may not even be a relevant part of the rotation for the first quarter of the season. But if he can crack the rotation on this team, one with as real of championship aspirations as any team in the history of the league, he is well on his way to becoming a massive part of OKC’s future, both on the court and on the cap sheet.
