Stars are born in the regular season.
The NBA has seen hundreds, if not thousands, of stars throughout its history. They come and go. They can be replaced or forgotten.
The playoffs breed legends.
Those who will go down in history as the greatest to ever do it rise to the occasion and prove that the moments that are the biggest belong to them and nobody else. In Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander proved why he’s going to retire among the greats. Victor Wembanyama showed exactly why he was rightfully crowned the face of the NBA before he ever played in the playoffs. Stephon Castle showed that, even when the shot may not be falling and his frustration can boil into negative plays, he’s incredibly impactful. Dylan Harper used an SGA-esque array of moves to show that no spotlight is too bright for him despite his youth. Even De’Aaron Fox, playing on a high ankle sprain, made big shots in the clutch.
Then there was Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren shied away from Wembanyama, deemed by many to be his career rival, time after time. He looked uncomfortable, mentally frazzled and frankly unwilling to look for shots as OKC’s season salted away while Gilgeous-Alexander’s best-ever playoff performance went to waste.
A few things should be said in order to maintain fairness to Holmgren. Wembanyama is an all-time competitor who has a rare mentality. He’s always turned up to 10, and when Holmgren is across from him, he seems to somehow take it to somewhere in the vicinity of 100. Holmgren is also not an offensive initiator. While he grew up idolizing and works out with Kevin Durant, he doesn’t have anywhere near the natural fluidity that makes Durant so unique. So, with Jalen Williams on the shelf and Ajay Mitchell next to him, folks naturally wanted Holmgren to slide in and be aggressive, but that’s just not really who he is as a player.
The vicious, bullying nature of what Wembanyama wants to do to Holmgren every time he sees him and the constant slew of active, physical defenders that surround him are enough to stifle OKC’s star center when he’s not the second-best offensive player on the team. So, when that’s combined with the Thunder’s injuries and Holmgren’s elevated importance, it really did combine to be the series from hell for Holmgren.
Unfortunately for Holmgren and the Thunder, that series from hell is likely to be played on repeat for the next half-decade. While calls for Holmgren to be traded by fans may have some merit, especially if OKC went all-in on the perpetually available superstar residing in Milwaukee, every indication is that the Thunder has no plan to entertain trade offers involving Holmgren. So, if that remains the case, how can Holmgren and OKC improve enough to overcome this giant that presents it, and everyone, so many issues?
General Health
This will be the shortest and simplest section of this piece.
In the NBA Finals, we’ve seen that one of the most consistent ways to at least make Wembanyama’s life tougher is to have optionality on defense. New York has thrown Karl-Anthony Towns at Wemby as his primary defender, but they’ve had options like OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson as tall, long options to make him uncomfortable. OKC’s defense is amazing and an all-time unit, but it’s small in stature. Cason Wallace, Lu Dort and Alex Caruso are all top-of-the-line defenders, but they’re all under 6-foot-5. Holmgren is really skinny and struggles with physicality and rebounding. The key to allowing the Thunder to realize its full potential on defense is having a 6-6 or 6-7 wing who can switch everything and play with overwhelming physicality. Sound familiar?
The reality is that Williams is the key for OKC on both sides of the ball. He takes pressure off Gilgeous-Alexander on offense and he can guard every position on defense. Without him, the Thunder was always a significantly worse version of its 2025 self that lacked offensive punch unless Gilgeous-Alexander was literally making everything.
Mitchell’s absence, if everyone else was healthy, would be an overcomeable hurdle for OKC, but with Williams out, his offensive ability was necessary. When he was also out, OKC’s offense was reliant on a newly acquired Jared McCain and a hot Caruso, and when that role player offense inevitably ran out in Games 6 and 7, Gilgeous-Alexander was left to go it alone while his teammates missed open shots and Holmgren wanted no part of the ball.
If Williams was healthy, I think the outcome of the series is different. If Mitchell is healthy, he could’ve at least been a release valve who could’ve had a game or two to support Gilgeous-Alexander.
So, while I’ve deeply and legitimately considered what massive change would look like, the best course of action is probably to make changes around the fringes with rookies and a legit shooter and run it back with the assumption that the team can’t be this marred by injury again.
How will Holmgren get better?
When dismissing dramatic outside acquisition, the keys to OKC reversing the outcome of the Western Conference Finals are health and internal improvement. At the top of that list is, clearly, Holmgren taking a step forward.
From the outside, it’s impossible to diagnose what mental changes Holmgren needs to make so that he can play as he does against 28 other teams against Wembanyama, but it’s clear that he has a hurdle to get over there. So what are the changes in his game on the court that he can make?
Holmgren has to be more aggressive in looking for and shooting his 3. One of the benefits of being 7-1 is that, if you’re a knockdown shooter, closeouts are going to be mitigated. Holmgren is a knockdown shooter, and that was especially true in the 2025-26 regular season. He’s shot 38%, 37% and 36% in his three NBA seasons, and while those numbers don’t scream elite shooter, it’s clear when watching Holmgren that he’s a comfortable shooter who feels way more like himself outside of the paint than inside of it. Another key to that is Holmgren speeding up his jump shot. Holmgren, despite his skill, is not an aggressive shooter. He’s clearly bothered by closeouts, especially by the tall, athletic defenders of San Antonio.
There are clips all over the internet of Holmgren’s form when he was younger and how much faster it was. OKC employs Chip Engelland, widely regarded as the best shooting coach in NBA history, for this exact reason. He’s credited with giving Kawhi Leonard the framework for going from non-shooter to midrange and 3-point assassin. Holmgren is a far more natural shooter than Leonard was at this stage of his career, and the reworking and speeding up of his jumper could be a huge swing for him, especially in this particular matchup.
I don’t think Holmgren is physically capable of holding much more weight than he is already, but continuing to get stronger is also key, both for holding up over the season health-wise and being able to battle down low for rebounds, something that, despite the gross taste his WCF just left in the mouth of OKC fans, he did improve at last season.
Holmgren is never going to be as good as Wembanyama. As soon as Wemby sprouted to 7-6 or whatever he actually is and Holmgren stopped at 7-1, that conversation ended. But for OKC to climb the mountain that is the Spurs, he has to be better. San Antonio is only going to improve. If OKC wants to stay with San Antonio atop the Western Conference, it has to get better too, and if Holmgren isn’t at the crux of that next season, real conversations will have to be had.
Add shooting and big wings
OKC is fortunate to be in a position to have this much maneuverability.
It’s going to be in or brushing up against the second apron, the most punitive and restrictive team-building measure we’ve ever seen in the NBA. But, because of shrewd trades that occurred long after the Paul George deal, the Thunder is in a position to have multiple picks in drafts for the next four seasons.
This year, in one of the most talent-rich drafts we’ve seen, OKC has two picks in the top-20. It’s slotted to pick No. 12 and No. 17 as of now, but many have speculated that it could move up the board if it falls in love with a prospect. As I went into earlier, the key to the NBA is increasingly becoming having big wings. Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Julian Champagnie and even a guy like Stephon Castle, who plays like one of those big wings, have all been crucial in the NBA Finals. That just so happens to be the one thing that OKC is deficient in. Williams is the prototypical big wing, but he’s been injured multiple times now, and the Thunder doesn’t have other guys like that other than Kenrich Williams, who it’s been resistant to play in the playoffs.
That brings two guys into focus in the draft range OKC is in at 12: Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Tennessee’s Nate Ament.
Lendeborg is a favorite of Thunder Twitter, and for good reason. He’s an older prospect who will be 24 on opening night, but the basketball fit is perfect. His ability to fit into any role is impressive. He was the star of his team during his time at UAB, and likely could’ve been in the first round if he had stayed in the draft last season. Instead, he went back to college and got a big payday to play for Michigan, where he helped Michigan win the title and was the best player on the team, but he was able to be a Swiss Army Knife for the Wolverines on a loaded roster set to have three first-round picks in this draft.
He shot 37% from 3-point range and was elite on defense, along with showcasing eye-popping athleticism on the break. He’s been vocal about wanting to come to OKC and I can’t say enough how perfect the basketball fit is, but going off of Sam Presti’s history, there is reason to think OKC could prefer Ament.
The first of those is personality. OKC, from top to bottom, is nothing but professional. The most controversial thing about OKC’s roster off the court is that McCain paints his nails and makes TikToks. Lendeborg doesn’t do anything concerning off the court at all, to be clear. But he’s brash and bold in displaying his personality. He heavily leaned into being the villain during Michigan’s title run, something that OKC completely dismissed as it became the bane of NBA fans’ existence during last season.
For what it’s worth, I think OKC could use a Lendeborg. Someone who will go get their lick back when Mason Plumlee takes a shot at McCain. But it’s smart to prioritize actions over words, and Presti has shied away from both older and controversial prospects in the past, and Lendeborg is both of those things.
Ament, on the other hand, is neither. He says the right thing every single time, went to a school in Tennessee where defense is an absolute must, and you have to be wired a certain way to play big minutes there. He’s also coming off a, despite unrealistic expectations, very good freshman season with the Vols in which he averaged 17 points per game. His 3-point percentage wasn’t where you’d want it to be at 33%, but Tennessee’s offense generated bad shots over and over, and Ament was one of two real shot creators on the roster. He also shot 79% from the free-throw line, a clear indicator that he can walk into the NBA with better looks and be a better 3-point shooter than he was in his lone college season.
He was a highly-touted recruit in an all-time class. It was also discovered at the combine that Ament is likely to grow up to two more inches, so while he’s a frustrating prospect at 6-10, he would all of a sudden be fascinating at 7-foot.
I understand the reservations with Ament, but he projects to be the type of player that OKC will need and one they don’t really have as of now. I’m of the belief that Ament is a significantly better shooter than the 33% he put up at Tennessee. If he hits, Ament could be a superstar, while Lendeborg’s ceiling is limited, although the floor is high. My lean would be Lendeborg, because the fit is so obvious and he can play a lot for OKC next season, but Presti’s history says he’s almost certainly enamored with a guy like Ament.
In conclusion
OKC and Holmgren, as the title says, do have a problem. Wembanyama and the Spurs are in their beginning stages and they’re going to get even better, probably by a lot. But OKC has options. If Holmgren can make the changes to his game that I discussed, it’s sure to improve his confidence against San Antonio.
Holmgren’s importance can’t be overstated. He’s just as good as Castle and Harper are in the NBA hierarchy, but for whatever reason, he melted down against the Spurs. Next season, his primary goal should be to join the aforementioned list of Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama, Castle and Harper as guys who get better in the playoffs, not worse.
If Holmgren can recover from his series against the Spurs and make those leaps, Williams and Mitchell can come back and look like themselves and OKC can add a big wing/elite shooter like Lendeborg and Ament both are or can be in my opinion, the Thunder could be playing at this time next season, just as everyone thought as recently as a month ago.
