The Oklahoma City Thunder is back in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012.
Behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who won the Kia NBA MVP and the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, an ascending Jalen Williams and a resurgent Chet Holmgren, the Thunder ran through the Western Conference, losing only four total games. Three of them came against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
Since then, the Thunder, as a whole, have been open about how they think about that series. Mark Daigneault and Williams both have said OKC “grew up” against the Nuggets. Now, the Thunder are going up against a team in the Indiana Pacers that has had its share of coming-of-age moments in these playoffs.
The Pacers sent home the Milwaukee Bucks, possibly ending the Giannis Era. Then, they dismantled the Cleveland Cavaliers, dispatching the 64-win, first-seeded Cavs in just five games. If that wasn’t surprising enough, Indiana won the Eastern Conference by beating the New York Knicks in six games. The Pacers took a 3-1 lead over New York and could have easily won the East in the same number of games that OKC won the West.
In the same way OKC shines on defense, Indiana shines on offense. With a fast-paced, run-and-gun offense led by an improving superstar in Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers provide challenges that OKC hasn’t faced yet in these playoffs.
But can Indiana’s NBA-best offense outgun OKC’s all-time defense?
That is what the NBA Finals will come down to. The Thunder is a heavy betting favorite to win its first championship, but how much does that matter to The Suave Report staff? Below, we will all make our predictions on who will win, in how many games, and who will secure the Finals MVP.
Calif Poncy — OKC in 5
My instinct as a sports fan is to lean toward series being competitive.
After all, Indiana is a very good team. Haliburton is coming into his own as a primary creator. Pascal Siakiam has shown why the Pacers gave up three first-round picks for him last season. Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are high-level defenders who can space the floor. Indiana shoots better from the corners than anyone in the playoffs, a particular area that OKC leaves open regularly.
And with all of that, my normally trepidacious instincts are screaming that the Thunder is the much better team and it will win this series easily.
The Thunder checks a few boxes that make it a prohibitive favorite, in my opinion.
At the top of that list, bolded, with a bullet next to it, in large font, is that OKC has Gilgeous-Alexander. The NBA MVP is by far the best player in the series. That was the case against Memphis, which OKC swept, and Minnesota, which OKC dismissed with ease in five games. Jokic had that title in the second round, and he nearly sent a historically dominant OKC team home.
Now, Indiana has been in this situation multiple times already this postseason.
Giannis was the best player in the Pacers’ first-round series. Didn’t matter. Donovan Mitchell was the best player in the Cavs vs. Pacers. Didn’t matter. Jalen Brunson was the best player in the Eastern Conference Finals. Didn’t matter.
In a vacuum, Haliburton has yet to be the best player in a playoff series in his career, but yet, Indiana has had strong playoff success in each of the last two seasons.
But usually, Indiana has had a much better roster around its star than the others. Damian Lillard tore his Achilles for a Bucks team that was already outgunned. Cleveland’s few bench players melted down. New York had a 6.5-man rotation.
OKC matches, and probably has better depth than Indiana, on top of having the best player in the series.
Everything here points to the fact that OKC is a way better team, and I’ll pick it to be so.
FINALS MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
For the first time, Gilgeous-Alexander will be respected as someone who is on an all-time great trajectory. He’ll join Willis Reed, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, and LeBron James as the only players to win NBA MVP and Finals MVP in the same season.
I don’t think this’ll be a close race. With how Indiana defends, Gilgeous-Alexander should have a walk in the park compared to the individual matchups with Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the zone that Denver ran.
I expect another masterclass from Gilgeous-Alexander and I expect him to gain some of the respect he deserves from those who consume the NBA.
Addam M. Francisco: Thunder in 6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been cooking—averaging 37 points, 8 boards, and 6 dimes over his last four games against Indy and OKC. Oh, and he’s 27-1 vs the East this year. That’s not just elite—it’s historic. But as much as this series centers around him, it’s really going to come down to Tyrese Haliburton and how he holds up.
The Pacers are 12-4 this postseason. In all four losses? Hali scored 20 or less. That’s not a coincidence. And the defensive looks OKC can throw at him—Lu Dort, Caruso, Cason Wallace, J-Dub—yeah, that’s a problem. The Pacers know it too.
His offense has been hit or miss, and against this Thunder defense, every miss is going to matter. This should only go five but it wouldn’t be the Finals without a little controversy.
Thunder in 6. The league will make sure of it.
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
AJ Bussey: Pacers in 6
With the NBA Finals two days away, I’m thinking about how the battle of the Small Markets will go. Two young stars with incredible supporting casts battling for their franchise’s first ever NBA title. While both the Pacers and the Thunder have great starters, I believe this will come down to which ball club has the better bench.
During the 2024-2025 NBA season, the Pacers have outscored the Thunder’s bench with an average of 39.8 bench points per game to the Thunder’s 35.1. Defensively however, both second units have the ability to play with an unrelenting pace and pressure that wears down opponents. And while I want to see the Thunder bring a championship home, my gut tells me that the Pacers bigs and backup guard play make this a great series and win in six.
Finals MVP: Tyrese Haliburton
