SGA v. Luka: Thunder set to take on the Mavericks in Round 2

Following their first round sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans, the Oklahoma City Thunder are slated to take on the 5-seed Dallas Mavericks tonight in round two of the Western Conference Playoffs.

It’s the battle of MVP candidates as Luka Doncic looks to knock off Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the top seeded Thunder. The biggest matchups will be the backcourts in this series. It’s not just SGA and Luka to watch there though. The Mavericks still have multi-time All Star guard Kyrie Irving while OKC has the young stud Jalen Williams to lean on as well as Josh Giddey, who was on fire to end the previous series.

Defensively, we are not sure who will matchup with the Maverick’s stars. Lu Dort will most certainly be on Luka after putting Pelican’s star Brandon Ingram in basketball hell last series.

However, it’s unclear who will guard Kyrie. SGA feels like a likely matchup, but he is a much more elite off-ball defender more than on the ball. It’s likely that Jalen Williams will matchup with Maverick’s forward P.J. Washington. Josh Giddey isn’t a good enough defender to keep up with Irving for a whole game, so that leaves one other legitimate possibility for OKC: starting rookie Cason Wallace at the two. Wallace is their next best on-ball defender, and it’s a natural fit for him to guard someone of Irving’s size. Offensively, Wallace is far from a liability also, shooting over 40% from deep while being a low-turnover player considering he’s a rookie. We’ll just have to see what newly named Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will do in game one.

Down low feels like Oklahoma City’s biggest advantage. Chet Holmgren is set to square off with Dallas’s Daniel Gafford. Chet didn’t have the best series against New Orleans, but he held his own a majority of the time, including a stellar game two. Gafford should be a much easier matchup due to him being much smaller than Pelican’s center Jonas Valanciunas. Standing 6’10” and weighing 234 pounds, Holmgren actually has a size advantage. While still not being the best rebounder, Holmgren has the potential to be a huge reason for Thunder success this series.

At this point in the year, stats can only tell you so much. All the teams remaining are 100% in playoff mode and they are very different teams now compared to the regular season, so it’s best to look at the matchup on its face. We’ll call the backcourt matchup a draw. Frontcourt, I favor OKC. Defensively, I favor OKC. Depth, I slightly favor OKC. Coaching, I favor OKC. It’s the Thunder’s series to lose, but Luka has done crazier things in his career. I predict the Thunder win the series in 5 games, but they will not run away with it. It will be a close matchup every single game, but the Mavericks just end up on the short end a few too many times.

Game one of the series tips off tonight at the Paycom Center at 8:30. We’ll see what these two MVP frontrunners have in store.