Roughly 80% of the teams that win Game 3 in a 1-1 series in the history of the NBA Finals go on to win the series.
After a 116-107 loss to the Indiana Pacers, the Oklahoma City Thunder are on the wrong side of history.
It was the Pacers who turned the tables on OKC to take the advantage in the series. The OKC defense has been historic at forcing turnovers all season. It tortured both Minnesota and Denver in that area, often gaining a significant advantage in points off turnovers. On Wednesday, it was the Pacers, who forced 19 OKC turnovers and scored 21 points off of them, who did the torturing.
Between the turnovers and a lackluster performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC was outmatched.
Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 24 points and shot below 50% from the field, coming up small in a big game for the first time this postseason. He wasted high-level performances from his costars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who combined for 46 points.
Outside of those three, OKC struggled to generate much on offense. Lu Dort hit four 3s, but Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein were all zeros on the offensive end.
Indiana was a different story.
Tyrese Haliburton looked far more aggressive and comfortable at home, scoring 22 points and recording 11 assists to go with nine rebounds. He was joined by Pascal Siakam, who was huge in the opening minutes and scored 21 points.
But the story of the night for Indiana, just like it was in Game 2 for OKC, was the role players.
Bennedict Mathurin was elite, scoring 27 points on 75% shooting. His shots weren’t easy ones, either. He was often hitting off-the-dribble, contested looks that OKC would love for him to take, and it just didn’t matter.
For what Mathurin did on offense, T.J. McConnell did on defense.
He pestered the Thunder on defense, recording five steals, two of which were on inbounds passes and immediately led to easy buckets for Indiana. He was just dangerous enough on offense not to be a net negative.
So often in the playoffs, games come down to role players. Game 3 was a perfect example of that.
Despite Gilgeous-Alexander’s off night, OKC’s Big 3 was still effective enough to win as a whole; however, outside of Dort, the other players provided little to OKC.
Now, for the first time since Round 2, OKC’s season is on the brink.
If the Thunder fall in Game 4 and Indiana takes a 3-1 lead, its season is all but over. Like the Knicks before them, OKC will be left looking at Game 1 thinking what if.
But, if OKC can take Game 4, it’ll win back home court advantage, and outside of two game-winners, the Thunder has been virtually unbeatable at home.
It’s a long series ahead, but Game 4 is a must-win if the Thunder wants to bring back a title for the first time in franchise history.
