With the draft less than a week away, it is finally time to break down some of the potential targets OKC could be focusing on.
This year’s draft feels a little different. Priorities have changed for the Thunder. With a team ready to compete, it is hard to get fans fully bought into a draft that is unlikely to produce a player who makes a big difference right away. But, just because the team is good, doesn’t mean the pick isn’t important. The bill is going to come due for OKC soon, and unfortunately, it is virtually impossible to keep a whole team together for more than a couple of years, so while this player may not make an immediate impact, they could just as easily be OKC’s version of P.J. Washington in a few years time.
Now, OKC is notoriously secretive when it comes to its plans regarding the draft. The only times in recent memory that spring to mind as far as known picks involving the Thunder are Reggie Jackson and Aleksej Pokusevski, both of whom didn’t last line in OKC.
In other words, of the players listed in this article, OKC will probably go off the board, but I’m going to do my best to narrow it down to a few realistic options assuming OKC stays at 12 and decides to pick another guard.
The chances of that happening dwindled Thursday when the Thunder acquired defensive specialist Alex Caruso in a trade with the Chicago Bulls that sent Josh Giddey to the Windy City. With that trade comes a virtual guarantee of an extension for Caruso, meaning OKC may have to move off one of its other guards in the future due to finances becoming increasingly strained.
The addition of Caruso makes drafting a guard less likely, but OKC could do anything come Wednesday and no one would be surprised.
Devin Carter-Providence
Just a few seasons back, OKC took Jalen Williams 12th overall, much to the surprise of most of the casual NBA world. Carter’s jump throughout the pre-draft process has not been as stark as that of Williams, but he is undoubtedly a riser and one who makes some sense for OKC.
Carter transferred to Providence following his freshman season at South Carolina. Carter was solid during his lone year with the Gamecocks, but he took off once he became a Friar. After averaging 13 points as a sophomore, he upped that total to 19 this past season, elevating him to Big East Player of the Year and raising him from a fringe second-rounder to a lottery lock.
Carter is a little smaller than you’d want, coming in at 6’3, but often times he makes up for it with a very high motor and maniacal effort offensively and defensively.
Starting with the positives. Carter has the potential to be a game-changer on the defensive end, both on and off ball. He stands up well on the perimeter and even looks a little bit Lu Dort-ish at times with his ability to bother people on ball. Carter was great at navigating screens in the clips I saw, a skill that is a must if you are going to be an elite defensive guard and a skill I would argue Dort does better than anyone in the NBA.
Off-ball, Carter is a ball hawk in passing lanes. He has extremely active hands, and never falls asleep or gets caught ball-watching. He has unusual shot-blocking skills for someone his size, but the way he does so if often due to being able to recover or come around screens and block the shot at its apex, not necessarily something that will definitely translate to the NBA. Carter is elite in terms of athleticism, so it could carry over, but I don’t think we will see him average a full block per game as he did during his final season at Providence. His shot-blocking instincts are fairly impressive for a guard, so I do think it will be a part of his game as he develops.
Offensively, Carter is a bulldog. It isn’t quite as pretty as his defense, but he did show flashes of being a difference-maker. After shooting less than 30% from three in each of his first two seasons, Carter raised his percentage to nearly 38% on high volume from deep. He was able to get to the rim and convert at a decent clip, and his athleticism allows him to throw down a surprising dunk every once in a while. Carter has a good feel for when to cut and how to finish off these cuts, and it could be what gets him on the court from an offensive perspective early in his career.
Carter’s three-point shot being a one-year outlier is problematic for me, and his shot looks a little clunky, especially in catch-and-shoot situations, but Carter is the type of guy who projects to make a lot more of them than you think he will at the next level, even if it’s not consistent.
The negatives for Carter are things that can be worked on and progressed to at least a passable level.
Carter is not an NBA-level self-creator off the dribble, which is tricky because his catch-and-shoot also isn’t in a great spot at this stage of his development. He does show flashes of being a good creator off the dribble, but he may need a year or two before it becomes a staple of his game. He also has times where he freezes a little bit when he gets stuck between the three-point line and rim, but that could easily be worked out.
His biggest red flag, especially for OKC, is his lack of high-end passing ability. He averaged nearly four assists per game last season, but he is oftentimes a reactionary passer, not an anticipatory passer, something that OKC has looked for over the past few years. Players like Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are both elite passers, and SGA has turned himself into one. Chet Holmgren even has a little bit of it in him. Carter leaves a little bit to be desired in that department.
Carter has become one of my favorite players in this class. I think he has a very high floor based on his defensive profile, and if he slips to OKC at 12, I think they would be wise to look past his flaws and prioritize building a ridiculous array of perimeter defenders to throw at the Luka’s of the world.
With Caruso coming to town, Carter could complete what would be one of the best collections of defensive guards the NBA has ever seen.
Jared McCain-Duke
McCain may be just as recognizable for his online presence as his college career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t hoop.
McCain is an absolute sniper from beyond the arc, both as a standstill shooter and as someone who can come off curls and pin-downs and make threes on the move. Perhaps the most interesting thing about McCain’s profile as a shooter is his ability to shoot the ball in transition. McCain shot 30/53 on transition threes this season (S/O to Hoop Intellect on YouTube), an asset that is of great service in the NBA, and specifically on OKC. OKC loves to get out and run, but Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are not potent pull-up threats from deep. Chet Holmgren thrived as a trailing shooter in college, but we have yet to see it translate to the NBA with consistency. If OKC were to add McCain, it would be getting one of the most efficient transition three0point shooters in the class.
Despite being a low usage player at Duke, McCain averaged more than 14 points per game. This, in combination with his 6’3 frame, tells me that McCain may be best served as a role player in his career, as he lacks the truly explosive athleticism of a Carter or some of the other players I’ll get into.
Defensively, McCain is active in passing lanes, but I don’t see him in the same tier as Carter in that regard. He’s thick, which will help him hold up against more physical offensive guards, but I think the likelihood is McCain is a minus as an on-ball defender throughout his career.
His self-creation ability isn’t great, which makes me question if OKC is a fit for him, but his shooting is elite enough across the board that it should be fine, even if it limits his ultimate upside. I’m not alone in this opinion, but I think McCain is a level below Carter as a prospect. Ironically, I think McCain’s top-end outcome may be someone like Isaiah Joe, a guy who spaces the floor at an elite level and can create off the dribble here and there and holds up on defense.
The addition of Caruso increases the likelihood that Joe could be signing his next contract elsewhere, and McCain is a realistic candidate to replace him as OKC’s resident sniper. I don’t think McCain will be the pick come Wednesday, but OKC has surprised me more than a handful of times over the past few seasons.
Carlton “Bub” Carrington-Pittsburgh
Carrington is another guy who has risen throughout the pre-draft process, and like Carter, I can see his fit in OKC without doing much squinting.
One thing that gives him the edge over Carter and McCain is his size. Carrington is 6’5, allowing him more position versatility than his competition, who both stand 6’3. The other two are thicker, and better at the rim than Carrington, but Carrington fits the Thunder mold of young with a long wingspan, something Sam Presti has always prioritized.
On the court, Carrington is electric as a pull-up jump shooter in the midrange, bringing more to that field than anyone else in this class. His ability to get to his spots gives him a ceiling that is a level above most guards who will be available in this class. The three-point percentage leaves a lot to be desired (32%), but the fact he is so comfortable in the midrange, he was willing to take more than six threes per game, and that he is a good free throw shooter gives me hope he can figure out both off the dribble and catch and shoot threes.
Another way Carrington is Thundery is in his playmaking ability. Both McCain and Carter are not natural playmakers, Carrington on the other hand shows an innate ability to pass with either hand and is a live dribble guy.
The biggest weakness in Carrington’s game is easily his finishing around the rim. He converted on only 51% of his looks at the rim this season, a horrible number that will be problematic until he figures out how to overcome his slight frame or puts on some weight. OKC wants to predicate its offense on driving and kicking, so Carrington may not make a huge impact right away, but his ability to do the hard things makes him very desirable.
Carrington has moments where he falls asleep on defense, but his plus wingspan and instincts give him the chance to progress into a good defensive player.
Out of the group of guards who could be there at 12, I think Carrington could be the one who makes the most sense for OKC based on its previous draft selections.
Nikola Topic-KK Crvena Zvezda (Serbia)
Topic may be the most polarizing prospect in the upcoming draft. A few months ago, he was in the discussion to go first overall, but then, a knee injury, initially believed not to be serious, sidelined him. Needless to say, it ended up being a torn ACL, and it is expected that Topic could miss all of his rookie season.
When healthy, Topic is one of the best playmakers in the class. He sees the court in a special way, easily whipping the ball from the paint to the perimeter on time and on target. Mixing his stellar playmaking ability with a complete game around the basket, Topic has the potential to bring something to the table as soon as he is able to play in the NBA.
Topic also navigates the pick and roll well as a ball handler, and, perhaps most importantly, is 6’7. His size allows him to see over the top of defenders and fire accurate passes anywhere in the half-court.
The negatives with Topic are pretty concerning, especially to an OKC team who can’t afford to give him time to grow. Topic is a below-average shooter from three, as he hit only 30% of his looks from deep prior to his injury. The good thing on that front is that Topic is an elite free throw shooter, and he is willing to shoot, so with reps, it is easy to believe he could figure out how to become a passable shooter one day.
Topic lacks top-end athleticism which really shows on the defensive end, where he can struggle to close out on shooters if he gets out of position.
Injuries also have to be accounted for when it comes to Topic. He has dealt with injuries in his left knee multiple times already, and his partially torn ACL not having a known timeline as of now is troubling. OKC has a pretty good track record in terms of being cautious and taking its time with injuries, but they have never had anyone with concerns at the level of Topic.
If Topic is there at 12, I don’t think OKC would be crazy to bet on the upside with one of the most talented players in the draft, but even if he hits and can play right away, he is similar to Giddey in multiple ways, and we have all saw how that experiment went. While I see the allure of Topic, I think OKC would be better using its pick on someone else unless it really believes in the long-term shooting development of Topic.
