SERIES PREVIEW
After an excruciating four seasons, the Oklahoma City Thunder are back in the playoffs, and by the looks of it, it appears to be an arrival, not an appearance, just as Sam Presti wanted.
After losing in the play-in tournament last season, the up-start Thunder got back in the lab over the summer and came back with a vengeance. OKC won 57 games, the most since 2013-14, and secured the top seed in the Western Conference for the first time since 2012-13.
In most seasons, a record like that would all but guarantee OKC an easy first-round matchup. Spoiler alert for those who have yet to watch this year’s playoffs–this isn’t most seasons.
The Thunder’s reward for topping the Western Conference is none other than the New Orleans Pelicans, a team that won 49 games this season, and boasts a roster loaded with high-end talent. The discussion around the Pelicans heading into the series has been dominated by the injury to NOLA superstar Zion Williamson, who is likely to miss the duration of the first round with a hamstring injury that was suffered against the Los Angeles Lakers in the play-in tournament.
Losing Williamson is a massive blow to the Pelicans, especially against an OKC team that struggles to defend the big and powerful, which are probably the first two words that come to mind when asked to describe Williamson. The former Duke standout had seemed to finally play himself into shape by the end of the regular season, and as a result, he was making the immortal Lebron James look athletically outmatched for one of the only times in his 20+ year career.
Even without Williamson, New Orleans has its fair share of high-level hoopers. At the top of that list is Brandon Ingram, a lanky 6’10 scoring forward who is as good as anyone in the NBA at getting to his spots and hitting difficult shots when he’s feeling it.
After Ingram comes C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy, and Herb Jones, in some order, when it comes to key pieces for New Orleans.
All of the aforementioned players offer a different challenge for OKC, but in reality, the Thunder have a superior crop of individual talent following the loss of Williamson. The one area NOLA does have the edge, as highlighted by my colleague Bradie Gray, is the rebounding battle. The Pelicans rank significantly higher than OKC in total, offensive, and defensive rebounding, as well as second-chance points.
Since the all-star break, OKC has been a better rebounding team overall, but the size of the Pelicans front line is sure to crop up at least a few times over the duration of the series.
On the offensive end, there is no need for OKC to complicate a formula that has worked all season. Move the ball for the first 45 minutes, generate good looks for role players, in the last three, get it to SGA or Dub, and get out of the way. If OKC can do that, as well as carry over its shooting splits from the regular season with only minimal drop-off, offense should be no problem for the Thunder.
The keys to OKC coming out with a win are simple– slow Ingram, play the free-flowing style that got it there, and don’t get dismantled on the boards. If the Thunder can do those three things, it should have no issue taking care of a Pelicans team that is missing its best, and most dynamic player.
PREDICTIONS
Result: Oklahoma City over New Orleans 4-1
Series MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Noteworthy takeaways: Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will show they belong in the postseason, Lu Dort will put the league on notice with elite defensive performance on Brandon Ingram
