Before this season began, I saw the vision.
In my preseason predictions, I projected the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs on a collision course toward the Western Conference Finals. On Dec. 23, I doubled down on that prediction, writing that San Antonio would dominate the regular season, the two teams would eventually meet in the conference finals, and the series would stretch to seven games.
Well, nearly everything I proclaimed came true, except for how many games this series will go and who will ultimately win it.
As the tweet above says, expect this series to reach seven games, with Oklahoma City surviving by the thinnest of margins.
The Thunder’s playoff run to this point has been almost too smooth. Two sweeps. An 8-0 record heading into the Western Conference Finals. Just the 11th team in NBA history to sweep through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Now? None of that matters.
And unlike the previous two rounds, I do not foresee another sweep. If the Thunder want to move past the one team that genuinely seems to understand how to disrupt them, several things have to happen.
OKC Needs to Forget the Regular Season and Exploit the Spurs’ Inexperience
As shown above, the Spurs won three of five regular-season meetings, and they did it largely behind role players stepping up.
Not to reopen old wounds for Thunder fans, but think back to the 2024 Western Conference Semifinals against the Dallas Mavericks. Oklahoma City won three of four regular-season matchups that year too.
It didn’t matter.
The Thunder core lacked playoff experience. They were the youngest team in basketball, and Dallas exposed both their weaknesses and their inexperience.
That is exactly what Oklahoma City needs to reverse in this series.
The Thunder have now lived through two Game 7s, including one against a roster loaded with championship-level experience. They understand the emotional swings, the physicality, and the precision required deep in the playoffs. They need to weaponize that experience against a Spurs roster that, outside of Harrison Barnes and De’Aaron Fox’s lone playoff run in Sacramento, has very little postseason experience, especially within its young core of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and Keldon Johnson.
Wemby Is Wemby. For the Love of God, Stop Everyone Else
As mentioned earlier, San Antonio won three of five meetings this season, and it was not because Wembanyama overwhelmed Oklahoma City statistically.
Wembanyama averaged 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks on 52.2 percent shooting in those matchups, numbers slightly below his season averages, though still impactful. He also played limited minutes throughout the season series because of injuries and injury management.
What hurt Oklahoma City was everybody else.
A different Spur led the team in scoring in four of the five matchups, and none of them were Wembanyama.
In the first meeting, Vassell scored 23. In the second, Johnson dropped 25. Fox followed with 29 in the third matchup. Castle scored 20 in a loss. Johnson then scored another 25 in the final regular-season meeting.
That is the danger of San Antonio. Wembanyama commands attention naturally, but the Spurs become significantly more dangerous when Oklahoma City overcommits to him and allows secondary scorers to find rhythm.
Prioritize Ajay and Dub Coexisting Effectively
There have already been murmurs surrounding who should start between Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams, especially with Williams’ return appearing imminent after he participated in practice Friday afternoon.
The answer is simple: J-Dub should start. That is his spot, and he has done nothing to lose it.
But honestly, the starting lineup is not the real conversation. What matters most is how the two settle into the same rotation, whatever that rotation ultimately becomes, considering Williams played just 33 games this season.
How do the two coexist while remaining effective? That is the real question.
Unlike last postseason, Oklahoma City has coasted through much of this playoff run despite Williams’ injury absence. But now the Thunder are facing a team that feels uniquely equipped to challenge them stylistically.
Still, Oklahoma City possesses one thing San Antonio does not yet fully have: experience. And at this stage of the playoffs, experience matters.
If the Thunder lean into that advantage, they should advance to the NBA Finals in pursuit of a second consecutive championship.
If they falter, the reign of Victor Wembanyama becomes even more real and perhaps arrives much sooner than anyone anticipated.
